000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180245 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0245 UTC Tue Aug 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 16.5N 106.0W at 18/0300 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring within 90 nm SE and 60 nm NW semicircles. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 101W and 109W. The center of Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Genevieve is forecast to move to the southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wed night and Thu. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Genevieve is expected to become a major hurricane on Tue. Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Wed. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 115W south of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 112W and 116W. A tropical wave axis is along 128W south of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered weak convection is noted from 10N to 13N within 180 nm east of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 09N85W to 15N99W, then resumes west of Hurricane Genevieve from 13N107W to 12N112W to 16N120W to 14N128W to 15N134W to 12N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 107W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of the monsoon trough W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about rapidly intensifying Hurricane Genevieve, which is expected to continue rapidly strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours while moving parallel to but well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Genevieve will produce extremely dangerous, life-threatening marine conditions over the next several days as it crosses the offshore waters. Elsewhere, earlier scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Seas range from 4-6 ft. Farther south, seas 8 ft or greater in swell associated with Genevieve are noted over 400 nm SE of the storm center based on recent altimeter data. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas will continue subsiding offshore of Guatemala tonight as Genevieve moves farther away from the region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoonal flow will freshen during the middle and latter parts of the week as the monsoon trough lifts northward. This will build seas to 6-9 ft off the coast of Costa Rica, Panama, and Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about rapidly intensifying Hurricane Genevieve. The 1008 mb remnant low of former Tropical Depression Fausto is centered near 23.5N127W. No convection is associated with this low pressure as it remains over cooler waters. Additional weakening is expected over the next day or so, and it will likely dissipate by Wed morning. A broad area of fresh to locally strong southerly winds persists well to the south and southwest of the center of Genevieve, with associated seas of 8-10 ft. The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E is centered near 14.5N137W, with fresh winds in its northern semicircle as indicated by an earlier ASCAT pass, and 6-8 ft seas. The low will continue weakening as it shifts west of the area on Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remaining waters with seas less than 8 ft. Generally moderate southerly monsoon flow will freshen during the middle and latter parts of the week, resulting in small areas of 8+ ft seas south of the monsoon trough. $$ B Reinhart