000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 15.5N 104.6W or about 210 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico and 530 nm southeast of the southern tip of Baja California at 17/2100 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 985 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Genevieve continues to rapidly intensify as observed on satellite imagery. There is evidence of a developing eye feature in the latest satellite imagery. The banding features are impressively wrapping around the center. They consist of numerous moderate to strong type convection. Similar convection is embedded in a large band within 210 nm of the center in the western semicircle. This banding feature stretches north and northeastward to along and just inland the coast of Mexico between Puerto Angel to just past Cabo Corrientes. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within an outer banding, about 60 nm wide, from near 14N100W to 16N102W. The present motion of Genevieve is expected to continue through early Tue. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to occur by Tue afternoon and continue through at least early Thu. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. The center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wed night and Thu. Large swell produced by Genevieve will begin affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 04N to 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave remains embedded in a very moist atmospheric environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen noted from 10N to 16N between 111W and 116W. A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 04N to 20N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 180 nm east of this wave from 10N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of northwestern Colombia near 10N76W, westward to across northern Costa Rica and northwestward from there to 13N93W and to 14N98W where it breaks down to the east of Hurricane Genevieve. It resumes at 14N106W and continues northwestward to 15N116W to 14N127W and to the remnant low of former Tropical Depression Ten-E near 16N135W with pressure of 1008 mb. From this low it continues to 10N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 107W-111W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 122W-124W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 116W-120W and between 131W-134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about rapidly intensifying Hurricane Genevieve, which is expected to rapidly strengthen while moving west-northwest parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Genevieve will produce extremely dangerous, life- threatening marine conditions over the next several days as it crosses the offshore waters. Elsewhere, the latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Seas range from 4-6 ft. Farther south, a broad area of fresh to strong cyclonic flow associated with Genevieve is noted off the coast of southern Mexico as suggest in the latest scatterometer data pass. A recent altimeter data pass depicted seas of 8 ft and greater extending up to 400 nm to the southeast of Hurricane Genevieve. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds and seas associated with Hurricane Genevieve have passed west of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, although some residual swell is still maintaining seas to 8 ft well offshore of Guatemala as were noted in an altimeter pass from this morning. Seas will continue subsiding through tonight as Genevieve moves away from the region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest monsoonal flow will freshen by midweek as the monsoon trough lifts northward. This will build seas to 7-9 ft off the coast of Costa Rica, Panama, and Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about rapidly intensifying Hurricane Genevieve. The remnant low of former Tropical Depression Fausto is centered near 24N127W with central pressure of 1008 mb. The low lacks deep convection as it moves over cooler water. Satellite imagery depicts the less defined low as a swirl of broken to overcast low and mid- level clouds from about 21N to 27N and between 124W-131W. Only isolated showers are possible within these clouds. Additional weakening is expected as the remnant low spins down over the cooler waters during the next day or so. Global models indicate that it will dissipate by Wed morning. Latest scatterometer data again shows a broad area of fresh to locally strong southerly winds well to the south and southwest of the center of Genevieve. This enhanced monsoon flow is likely producing seas of 8-10 ft roughly from 06N to 10N between 100W and 110W. The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E is centered near 16N136W, with fresh winds as indicated by the latest ASCAT pass noted within 120 nm in its northern semicircle. Seas with these winds are in the range of 6-8 ft. The low will continue to degrade as it shifts west of the area on Tue. The 6-8 ft seas will lower to just below 8 ft on Tue afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remaining waters with seas less than 8 ft. Generally moderate southerly monsoon flow will freshen during the middle and latter parts of the week, resulting in small areas of 8+ ft seas south of the monsoon trough. $$ Aguirre