000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Mon Aug 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 13.3N 101.7W at 17/0900 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 210 nm W semicircle. The center of Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Rapid strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days, and Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane by Tue. Large swell produced by Genevieve will begin affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Fausto is centered near 23.1N 124.2W at 17/0900 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A turn toward the west and west-southwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected to begin this afternoon and continue through Tue. Additional weakening is expected, and Fausto is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The remnant low is expected to dissipate late Tue or early Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 112W south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 109W and 115W. A tropical wave axis extends along 126W south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 11N96W, then resumes W of T.S. Genevieve near 10N105W to 12N113W, then continues from 12N136W to 10N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm N of the monsoon trough between 88W and 96W, and from 10N to 13N between 115W and 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Genevieve, which is expected to rapidly strengthen while moving W-NW parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Genevieve will produce extremely dangerous, life-threatening marine conditions over the next several days as it crosses the offshore waters. Elsewhere, overnight scatterometer data shows light to gentle winds offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Seas range from 3-6 ft. Farther south, a broad area of fresh to strong cyclonic flow associated with Genevieve is noted off the coast of southern Mexico. A large area of 8 ft or greater seas extends eastward from Genevieve to south of the Tehuantepec region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds and seas associated with Tropical Storm Genevieve have passed west of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, although some residual swell is still maintaining seas to 8 ft well offshore of Guatemala. Seas will continue subsiding through tonight as Genevieve moves away from the region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will freshen by midweek as the monsoon trough lifts northward. This will build seas to 7-9 ft off the coast of Costa Rica, Panama, and Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about Tropical Storm Genevieve and Tropical Depression Fausto. Overnight scatterometer data shows a broad area of fresh to locally strong southerly winds well SW of the center of Genevieve. This enhanced monsoon flow is likely producing seas of 8-10 ft roughly from 06N to 10N between 100W and 110W. The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E is centered near 14.5N134.5W, with fresh winds and 6-8 ft seas noted within 180 nm N semicircle. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remaining waters with seas less than 8 ft. Generally moderate southerly monsoon flow will freshen during the middle and latter parts of the week, resulting in small areas of 8+ ft seas south of the monsoon trough. $$ B Reinhart