000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 UTC Mon Aug 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 12.4N 100.4W at 0300 UTC. The estimated minimum pressure is 998 mb and is moving WNW at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 98W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection in bands are elsewhere from 08N to 16N between 96W and 105W. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so. Rapid strengthening is anticipated during the next couple of days, and Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane by Tuesday. Large swell generated by the strengthening system are expected to affect portions of the coast of southern Mexico over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Fausto weakened to a Tropical Depression at 0300 UTC. Tropical Depression Fausto is centered nearr 23.1N 122.9W with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb at 2 PM PDT, and is moving NW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convection has significantly reduced to scattered moderate from 20N to 24N between 120W and 124W. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. Fausto is expected to degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure on Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 03N to 17N with axis near 111W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 106W and 117W. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 16N with axis near 124W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N to 14N between 120W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N95W then resumes W of Tropical Storm Genevieve near 11N104W to 12N112W, then again from 12N137W to 10N140W. Aside the convection associated with the tropical waves and the tropical cyclones in the Special Features section above, numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 10N between 87W and 92W. Scattered moderate is elsewhere N of 02N E of 87W, and from 08N to 10N W of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Genevieve. The system will move west-northwest, parallel to the coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. Genevieve will move to 13.4N 102.7W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.8N 105.7W Mon evening, 16.3N 108.2W Tue morning, 17.7N 110.1W Tue evening, 19.1N 111.5W Wed morning, and 20.4N 112.9W Wed evening. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.7N 116.0W late Thu. High winds and rough seas are expected across the SW Mexico and Baja California offshore waters. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds in the Gulf of California will become southeasterly moderate to fresh on Thu as Genevieve starts to move over Baja California Sur offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 9 ft associated with Tropical Storm Genevieve will move west of the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters by Mon morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will continue to affect the offshore waters of Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia through Thu and then the remainder offshore waters as the monsoon trough lift slightly northward. Seas are expected to build to 9 ft by the middle of the week, continuing through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about Tropical Storm Fausto and Tropical Storm Genevieve. Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E near 14.2N 134.1W, estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb, and moving NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm in the southern semicircle. A gradual turn to the west and then west-southwest at a slow forward speed is expected over the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Outside of these tropical systems, 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 29N132W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Generally moderate to fresh southerly monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. $$ Ramos