000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161522 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1321 UTC Sun Aug 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.7N 134.0W at 16/1500Z, moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm W quadrant. The system will continue to slowly move NNW today, then turn to a NW, then a W track afterwards. The system is forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near 20.7N 119.6W at 16/1500 UTC moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of Fausto. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N to 23N between 116W and 123W. Fausto is expected to be short lived as the system will start to move over cooler waters, which will weaken the system. The current forecast has the system becoming a remnant low in about 2 days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. Newly developed Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 11.3N 97.3W at 16/1500 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 94W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 06N to 17N between 92W and 103W. The system is forecast to move NW, parallel to the coast of SW Mexico while intensifying. The current forecast has the depression intensifying to tropical storm strength today, and reach hurricane intensity Monday night. Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico, large swell generated by the strengthening system are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico over the next day or so. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 109W from 03N to 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 107W and 111W. A tropical wave axis is near 122W from 03N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 120W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N93W. It resumes from 10N100W to 11N110W. It resumes from 11N136W to 10N140W. Aside the convection associated with the tropical waves and the tropical cyclones in the Special Features section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of 02N E of 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 10N between 103W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features above for more about recently developed TD Twelve-E. The system will move west- northwest, parallel to the coast of SW Mexico. This system will move across the Mexico offshore forecast zones from Oaxaca and Chiapas northwestward to Punta Eugenia, bringing high winds and rough seas to these offshore waters. Outside of winds associated to tropical cyclone Twelve-E, winds will be in the gentle to moderate range. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recently developed Tropical Depression Twelve-E will continue to move further from the forecast waters and its impact on the area will decrease today. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough with seas in the 5-7 ft range through the early part of the week. Monsoon flow will freshen by the middle of the week, increasing seas to the 6-8 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Tropical Depression Ten-E and Tropical Storm Fausto. Outside of these tropical systems, 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 28N131W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Generally moderate to fresh southerly monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. $$ AL