000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152045 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1913 UTC Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.0N 133.7W at 15/2100 UTC moving N at 0 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 134W and 137W. Maximum seas are 11 to 12 ft. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A tropical wave axis is near 91W/92W, north of 01N into Central America. A 1008 mb low pressure is along this wave near 09.5N91.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 90W and 97W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this low. A tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. An area of low pressure near 17N118.5W is associated with a tropical wave. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 115W and 121W. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for further development, and tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Sunday. This system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next couple of days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 105W north of 01N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 12N between 100W and 111W. Please see special features section above for more on the tropical waves near 91W/92W and 118W/119W, and tropical cyclone potential. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N97W to 18N113W to 12N130W. Aside from convection noted with the tropical waves and special features, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 80W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 120W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate SE flow across the Gulf of California. The area of low pressure SW of the southern tip of Baja California is moving westward over cooler waters. Tropical cyclone development with this low is no longer expected. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec the rest of this weekend. Low pressure near 09.5N91.5W is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone this weekend as it moves W-NW offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the southern Mexico offshore waters associated to this feature. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure that is west of Central America near 09.5N91.5W. This system will bring strong winds and large seas to the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua the rest of this weekend. Winds and seas will subside early next week as the system moves further west of the area. Fresh to strong S to SW winds prevail offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas are generally 6-8 ft in this enhanced monsoonal flow. Fresh winds will pulse overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Tropical Depression Ten-E, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone development elsewhere across the eastern North Pacific basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Generally moderate to fresh SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. $$ AL