000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E centered near 13.4N 133.4W at 15/0900 UTC moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm SW quadrant. Maximum seas are 11 to 12 ft. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is along 85W, north of 01N into Central America. A 1005 mb area of low pressure has formed in association with this wave and the monsoon trough near 10N87W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 85W and 94W. Conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across Central America this weekend. An area of low pressure near 15N117W is associated with a nearby tropical wave. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm N of the center. Scatterometer data indicates a large area of fresh to strong SW winds southeast of this low. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of this system and there is a high probability it will become a tropical depression while it moves slowly north- northwestward during the next few days. An area of low pressure centered SW of the southern tip of Baja California near 22N112W is becoming less organized, and is not likely to become a tropical depression today. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE quadrant. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 85W north of 01N into Central America, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. 1005 mb low pressure is analyzed near 10N87W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information. A tropical wave axis is along 100W N of 01N into southern Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 96W and 103W. A tropical wave axis is near 117W south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed near 15N117W. Please see the Special Features section for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to low pressure near 10N87W to 09N92W to to 09N100W to 12N107W, then resumes from low pressure near 22N112W to low pressure near 15N117W to 10N126W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 84W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is noted from 10N to 18N between 114W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data showed moderate SE flow across the Gulf of California. The area of low pressure SW of the southern tip of Baja California is moving away, and weakening. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. A low pressure area is expected to form west of Central America this weekend. This low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by early next week as it moves W-NW offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect strong winds and building seas over the southern Mexico offshore waters early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure that is west of Central America near 10N87W. This system will bring strong winds and large seas to the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua this weekend. Winds and seas will subside early next week as the system moves W-NW offshore of southern Mexico. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong S to SW flow offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas are generally 6-8 ft in enhanced monsoonal flow. Fresh winds will pulse overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Tropical Depression Ten-E, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone development elsewhere across the eastern North Pacific basin. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Besides the areas described in the Special Features section above, generally moderate to fresh SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. $$ Mundell