000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142056 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2055 UTC Fri Aug 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.5N 132.7W at 14/2100 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SW quadrant. A 15 UTC altimeter pass near the center of Ten-E indicated max seas of 12-13 ft. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. An area of low pressure is centered near 19.5N110.5W, about 200 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE quadrant. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for another day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 8-13 kt. The disturbance is forecast to move over colder waters over the weekend, and further development is unlikely after that time. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds and building seas to the Baja California Sur offshore waters tonight and Sat. An area of low pressure near 13N117W is associated with a nearby tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 45 nm S semicircles. A large area of fresh to strong winds is noted in recent scatterometer data across the S semicircle of this low. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of this system, and it will likely become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward during the next few days. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A western Caribbean tropical wave along 81W/82W extends across western Panama into the far eastern Pacific. An area of low pressure is expected to form in association with this wave along the monsoon trough over the next couple days just offshore of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please the Special Features section above for more information on the tropical wave near 81W/82W. A tropical wave axis is near 97W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 96W and 98W. A tropical wave axis is near 117W/118W south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Low pressure is analyzed along this wave near 13N117W. Please see the Special Features section for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 09N93W to low pressure near 19.5N110.5W to low pressure near 13N117W to 14N130W. Besides the convection discussed in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough between 81W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 100W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features for details on the high chance of tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure near the Revillagigedo Islands. The remnant low of Elida lingers offshore of Baja California near 26N121W with no significant convection. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate SE flow across the Gulf of California, and a partial pass indicates fresh to strong winds in the E semicircle of low pressure near 19.5N110.5W. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong northerly winds were noted this morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to locally strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this weekend. Another low pressure area is expected to form off the coast of Central America over the next couple days. This system will likely develop into a tropical depression this weekend or early next week as it moves W-NW offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect strong winds and building seas over the southern Mexico offshore waters early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure that is expected to form off Central America this weekend. This system is expected to bring strong winds and building seas to the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua later this weekend. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong S to SW flow offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas are generally 6-8 ft within this enhanced monsoon flow. Fresh winds will pulse overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about T.D. Ten-E, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone development elsewhere across the eastern North Pacific basin. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Besides the areas described in the Special Features section above, generally moderate to fresh SW monsoon flow continues south of the monsoon trough. $$ B Reinhart