000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141446 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1409 UTC Fri Aug 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.6N 131.9W at 14/1500 UTC moving WSW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm in the SW semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. An elongated area of low pressure, with center near 18N110W, stretches from a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward several hundred miles. The northeastern portion of the trough has slowly organized during the past couple of days and is producing persistent shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this low, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend, bringing strong winds and building seas to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. The low is forecast to move west- northwest at about 10 to 15 kt toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Expect fresh to near gale force winds and building seas through Sat, affecting the waters off Cabo Corrientes today, and between Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas tonight and Sat. The potential for tropical cyclone development is high. The tropical wave that helped for the area of low pressure near 18N10W has helped for another area of low pressure near 12.5N116.5W. The low is producing a large are of disturbed weather. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of this system and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward during the next few days. A tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean with axis near 80W, moving west at 15 kt. This wave will move across Central America during the next two days, and an area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it moves west of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week. At a minimum, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95W north of 02N into southern Mexico, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 92W and 102W. A tropical wave axis is near 116W/117W, from 01N to 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed in association to this wave, and there is a medium chance for tropical cyclogenesis within the next couple of days. Please see special features section above for more information. Please the Special Features section above for more information on the tropical wave near 80W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N92W to low pres near 18N110W to low pres near 12.5N116.5W to 14N129W. It resumes from 12N134W to 12N140W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 82W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features for details of developing area of low pressure west of Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island. The remnant low of Elida lingers west of Baja California near 26N121W with no significant convection. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. Seas should peak to near 8 ft at times in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, a low pressure area will move into the waters off Chiapas and Oaxaca by Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to occasionally strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Sat. A low is expected to develop west of Central America during the next couple of days in association to a tropical wave, and a tropical depression may form there by this weekend. Please see special features section above for ore information. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for information about T.D. Ten-E. The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N, and gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the area, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the convergence zone. Fresh to strong SW flow south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W along with 8 to 9 ft seas will persist into early week. $$ AL/Mundell