000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140346 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 14.2N 131.0W at 0300 UTC moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the SW semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A low is expected to develop within the next day or two west of Jalisco, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend, bringing strong winds and building seas to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. The low is forecast to move west-northwest at about 10 to 15 kt toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Expect fresh to near gale force winds and building seas to 12 or 13 ft through Sat, affecting the waters off Cabo Corrientes tonight, then between Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas Fri through Sat. The potential for tropical cyclone development is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean along 75W, moving west at 15 kt. This wave will move across Central America during the next two days, and an area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis as it moves west of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week. At a minimum, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica and Panama through the weekend. A tropical wave axis analyzed along 93W, north of 02N into southern Mexico, is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 89W and 94W. A tropical wave axis analyzed along 110W/111W, from 02N to 18N, is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 19N between 105W and 109W. Please the Special Features section above for more information on the tropical wave along 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 08N90W to 13N106W to 15N125W, then resumes west of T.D. Ten near 13N138W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N and east of 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 114W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features for details of developing area of low pressure west of Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island. The remnant low of Elida lingers west of Baja California near 26N121W with no significant convection noted. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. Seas should peak to near 8 ft at times in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another low pressure area may move into the waters off Chiapas and Oaxaca by Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to occasionally strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Sat. A low is expected to develop west of Central America during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression may form there by this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section for information about T.D. Ten-E. The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N, and gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the area, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the convergence zone. Fresh to strong SW flow south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W along with 8 to 9 ft seas will persist into early week. $$ Mundell