000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 951 UTC Thu Aug 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly formed Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.5N 129.1W at 13/0900 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm in of the NE semicircle and 120 nm in the SW semicircle of this depression. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds associated with a tropical wave along 103W/104W extends about 180 nm off the coast of Jalisco Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in this area as well. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is forecast to move west- northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Expect fresh to near gale force winds and building seas to 12 or 13 ft through Sat, though this may need to be boosted significantly if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone. Regardless of tropical development, this system is expected to affect the offshore waters off Cabo Corrientes through tonight, then between Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas tonight through Sat. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 87W, north of 02N through Nicaragua, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of Costa Rica. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west- northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. At a minimum, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica and Panama into Fri. Please the Special Features section above for more information on the tropical wave along 103W/104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 13N97W to 11N113W, and from 16N116W to T.D. Ten near 13N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 111W and 115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N or 10N between 84W and 87W, and from 09N to 12N between 11N to 13N between 103W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 12N between 111W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features for details of developing low pressure from off Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island. The impacts of Elida on waters off Baja California are diminishing as the storm gradually dissipates west of the area. However, swell associated with Elida of 5 to 7 ft are likely through the early morning from Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Eugenia beyond 210 nm. Farther south, lower pressures over the eastern Pacific will encourage fresh to strong gap winds to pulse into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early next week. Seas should peak to near 9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec accordingly. Looking ahead, another low pressure area may move into the waters off Chiapas and Oaxaca by Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Saturday. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Seas up to 9 feet will be possible west of Panama and Costa Rica. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. Even if this does not occur, expect locally heavy rainfall over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about T.D. Ten-E. The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N. No significant winds are noted, but NW swell to 8 ft will remain in the area through this evening. Elsewhere moderate north-south pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is promoting generally gentle to moderate NE winds across the waters. Fresh to strong SW flow south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W along with 8 to 9 ft seas will persist into early week. $$ Christensen