000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2035 UTC Wed Aug 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 23.7N 119.6W at 12/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Elida has lost significant strength today with scattered showers only evident about 180 nm in the northeast quadrant. Elida is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. The remnant low should dissipate by early Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Satellite images suggest that a better-defined low pressure area is forming about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula or near 13N127W, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming a little better organized. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 120W and 135W. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. A tropical wave extends from the Equator to 17N with axis near 101W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure has moved ahead of the wave near 13N9103W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 09N to the Mexican coast between 96W and 108W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. Expect fresh to near gale force winds and building seas near 15 ft on Fri and Sat, though this may need to be boosted significantly if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone. This system is expected to affect the offshore waters of Puerto Angel, Cabo Corrientes, Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W, north of 02N through Costa Rica, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 05N east of 86W. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. At a minimum, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica and Panama through the latter part of the week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13N103W to 13N116W. The monsoon trough resumes from 14N121W to 1006 mb low pressure near 12N127W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong thunderstorms is present from 07N to 17N between 106W to 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 125W and 134W, near the 1006 mb low. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Aside from Tropical Storm Elida and the tropical wave near 101W, fresh to strong northerly gap winds - primarily late night and early morning - should occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Saturday. Seas should peak to near 9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Saturday. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Seas up to 9 feet will be possible west of Panama and Costa Rica. As stated above, environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. Even if this does not occur, expect locally heavy rainfall over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about Tropical Storm Elida and two possible developing low pressure systems. The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N. No significant winds are noted, but NW swell to 8 ft will remain in the area through this evening. Elsewhere moderate north-south pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is promoting generally gentle to moderate NE winds across the waters. Fresh SW flow south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh to strong through this evening, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft, before diminishing later in the week. $$ Torres/NRamos