000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120957 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 957 UTC Wed Aug 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Elida is centered near 23.0N 117.7W at 12/0900 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident within 60 nm in the north quadrant. Elida is starting to weaken as it moves farther west into cooler waters. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a broad of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. There is a high chance this system will develop into a tropical cyclone slowly westward to west- northwestward into the central Pacific over the next several days. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance this low may develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. At a minimum, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas in offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Cabo Corrientes through Fri, and between Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas Fri through Sat. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 80W, north of 02W through central Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are ongoing over Panama near the wave axis. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave axis in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. At a minimum, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica and Panama through the latter part of the week. A tropical wave axis is near 98W, extending southward from the southern Mexico to 03N. A 1011 mb low pressure is located near 10N where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 10N between 95W and 100W. southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. As described in the Special Features section, environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Peak seas from this system are expected to be near 15 ft on Fri and Sat, though this may need to be boosted significantly if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1011 mb low pressure near another 1001 mb low pressure area near 11N98W to 11N105W. The monsoon trough resumes from 15N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12N129W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 18N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 115W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Aside from Hurricane Elida and the tropical wave near 98W, fresh to strong northerly gap winds - primarily late night and early morning - should occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. Seas should peak near 8 ft from this weak Tehuantepecer. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region starting mid-week. Moderate to fresh S winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Thu night. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. As stated above, conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Even if this does not occur, expect locally heavy rainfall over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about Hurricane Elida and the two developing low pressure systems. The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N. A cold front previously in the area north of 29N and west of 138W has dissipated. No significant winds are noted, but NW swell to 8 ft will present in the area through the 18 to 24 hours or so. Farther south, low pressure is forming near 12N129W 1010 mb.Some gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward to west of 140W. Elsewhere moderate north- south pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is promoting generally gentle to moderate NE winds across the waters. Fresh SW flow south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh to strong through Wed, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft, before diminishing later in the week. $$ Christensen