769 AXPZ20 KNHC 120422 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 422 UTC Wed Aug 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Elida is centered near 22.5N 116.5W at 12/0300 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 60 nm of the center. Latest satellite imagery shows clouds tops are warming, indicating the thunderstorm activity is weakening. Elida will weaken as it moves west through the latter part of the week, and will dissipate by Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Recent satellite wind data indicate that an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains elongated. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days. The system is not expected to move as quickly westward as originally forecast, and a slower westward to west-northwestward motion is now anticipated over the next several days. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the coast of southwest Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 97W, extending southward from the southern Mexico to 05N. A 1011 mb low pressure is located near 10N where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 10N between 95W and 100W. southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. As described in the Special Features section, environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Peak seas from this system are expected to be near 15 ft on Fri and Sat, though this may need to be boosted significantly if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N97W to 10N107W. The monsoon trough resumes from 14N115W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 12N between 123W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Aside from Hurricane Elida and the tropical wave near 96W, fresh to strong northerly gap winds - primarily late night and early morning - should occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. Seas should peak near 8 ft from this weak Tehuantepecer. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region starting mid-week. Moderate to fresh S winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Thu night. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Even if this does not occur, expect locally heavy rainfall over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about Hurricane Elida and the two developing low pressure systems. The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N. A cold front is stalling and weakening over the waters north of 29N and west of 138W. No significant winds are noted near this portion of the front, but NW swell to 8 ft will present in the area through the 24 hours or so. Farther south, low pressure is forming near 12N127W 1011 mb.Some gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward to west of 140W. Elsewhere moderate north- south pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is promoting generally gentle to moderate NE winds across the waters. Fresh SW flow south of the monsoon trough will increase to fresh to strong through Wed, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft, before diminishing later in the week. $$ Christensen