000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2117 UTC Tue Aug 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Elida is centered near 22.1N 115.4W at 11/2100 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. A motion toward the west-northwest should continue with some decrease in forward speed through Wednesday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm Wednesday or Wednesday night and degenerate to a remnant low Thursday or Thursday night.Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Satellite imagery indicates that a poorly defined low pressure area has formed in association with the elongated area of disturbed weather located around 1200 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 120W and 126W. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days. The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin during the next several days. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium, while formation chance through 5 days is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 96W, extending southward from the southern Mexico to 05N. A 1009 mb low pressure is located near 10N where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 10N between 95W and 103W. southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours is low, while it is high through 5 days. Peak seas from this system are expected to be near 15 ft on Fri and Sat, though this may need to be boosted significantly if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N96W to 11N108W. The monsoon trough resumes from 12N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 06N east of 83W as well as from 07N to 14N from 103W to 110W117W to 135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 13N west of 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Elida. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the Zone 13 for Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro to 250 nm offshores and Zone 15 for Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas to 250 nm offshore. Peak seas in Zone 15 now as well peak seas in the southern corner of Zone 13 tonight are anticipated to be near 25 ft. Aside from Hurricane Elida and the tropical wave near 96W, fresh to strong northerly gap winds - primarily late night and early morning - should occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. Seas should peak near 8 ft from this weak Tehuantepecer. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region starting mid-week. Moderate to fresh S winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Thu night. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days south of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Seas associated with this system are anticipated to peak around 10-12 ft in the Central American zones, though this may need to be significantly boosted if the system becomes a tropical cyclone. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about Hurricane Elida and the system 1200 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A 1031 mb high is centered northwest of our waters near 39N150W. A subtropical ridge extends from this high to 30N120W to 27N116W. A weak cold front reaches from 30N134W to 27N137W. NE winds to a strong breeze are occurring northwest of the cold front near our NW border at 30N140W. These winds should weaken over the next day as the cold front dissipates. A moderate north-south pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is promoting generally gentle to moderate NE winds across the waters. Winds south of the monsoon trough are up to fresh breeze southwesterlies. No significant long-period swell is impacting the waters. $$ Landsea