000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1526 UTC Tue Aug 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Elida is centered near 21.3N 113.8W at 11/1500 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95W, extending southward from the southern Mexico to 05N. A 1009 mb low pressure is located near 10N where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 10N between 94W and 102W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours is low, while it is high through 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N95W to 11N107W. The monsoon trough resumes from 13N117W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 07N east of 80W as well as from 08N to 12N from 117W to 135W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 13N between 102W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Elida. Hurricane Warnings are in place for the Zone 13 for Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro to 250 nm offshores as well as Zone 15 for Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas to 250 nm offshore. Peak seas in the southern corner of Zone 13 may reach 20 ft tonight, while peak seas in Zone 15 are currently near 25 ft. Aside from Hurricane Elida, fresh to strong northerly gap winds, primarily late night and early morning, should occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Peak seas from this system are expected to be near 15 ft on Fri and Sat, though this may need to be boosted significantly if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh S winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Thu night. A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region starting mid-week. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days south of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about Hurricane Elida. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter data confirmed seas to 8 ft just northwest of the discussion area. This is longer period NW swell and it is starting to reach the waters north of 28N west of 138W, but should subside within 36 to 48 hours. Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas in the 5 to 7 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W. Seas will build from roughly to 6 to 8 ft 05N to 10N between 120W and 130W by mid week. Low pressure persists along the monsoon trough near 12N126W. This low as a low probability of development in the next couple of days, but a high probability through the next five days as it moves farther west. $$ Landsea/Christensen