000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111008 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 939 UTC Tue Aug 11 2020 Corrected monsoon trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Elida is centered near 20.7N 113.0W at 11/0900 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm in the northeast semicircle and 90 nm southwest semicircle. Elida is expected to remain at hurricane strength into tonight as it moves farther west, then gradually dissipate through late week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 93W, extending southward from the southern Mexico to 05N. 1009 mb low pressure was well defined on an earlier Scatsat scatterometer pass where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 90W and 95W. While there is not a significant chance of development through the next couple of days, there is a medium probability for these features to contribute to the development of at least broad low pressure farther to the west- northwest by late week into early next week. In the short term, associated winds will increase to fresh to strong and seas to around 8 ft through midweek in the area from 10N to 14N between 90W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W 07N81W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N93W to 09N102W. The monsoon trough resumes from 15N112W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 98W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 115W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands through tonight. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are possible over coastal areas as well of Baja California Sur. Aside from Hurricane Elida, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Farther south, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong gap winds, enhanced by the tropical wave in the western Caribbean now crossing Central America, will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region and over the waters downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about Hurricane Elida. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter data confirmed seas to 8 ft just northwest of the discussion area. This is longer period NW swell and it is starting to reach the waters north of 28N west of 138W, but should subside within 36 to 48 hours. Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas in the 5 to 7 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W. Seas will build from roughly to 6 to 8 ft 05N to 10N between 120W and 130W by mid week. Low pressure persists along the monsoon trough near 12N126W. This low as a low probability of development in the next couple of days, but a high probability through the next five days as it moves farther west. In general, the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be propagating across the eastern North Pacific forecast waters. This feature will produce a favorable large scale environment for active convection which will elevate the potential for tropical cyclone development in these waters over the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center will closely monitor this situation. $$ Christensen