000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2055 UTC Mon Aug 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Elida is centered near 19.6N 110.9W at 10/2100 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and strong convection is within 200 nm ne quadrant, within 160 nm se quadrant, and within 120 nm w semicircle. Additional strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, but steady weakening is forecast to begin late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 86W, extending southward from the western Caribbean across Central America to 04N. The wave is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. This tropical wave will be monitored over the next several days as it has the potential to act as a precursor for tropical cyclone development. There is a low probability of cyclogenesis in the next two days, but there is a medium probability within the next five days. Associated winds and seas will increase to fresh to strong and around 8 ft from Tue through Wed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N96W to 11N102W then resumes from 14N113W to 11N126W, then continues west of 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N E of 100W, from 09N to 12N between 117W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on Hurricane Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas, to include the entrance to the Gulf of California and the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue. Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents are possible over coastal areas as well. Aside from Hurricane Elida, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters north of 30N off Baja California Norte will diminish through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong gap winds, enhanced by the tropical wave in the western Caribbean now crossing Central America, will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about Hurricane Elida. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas in the 6 to 8 ft range roughly from 04N and 10N between 105W and 120W. Looking ahead, the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be propagating across the eastern North Pacific forecast waters. This feature will produce a favorable large scale environment for active convection which will elevate the potential for tropical cyclone development in these waters over the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center will closely monitor this situation. $$ Torres/JL