000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 911 UTC Mon Aug 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 18.3N 108.8W at 10/0900 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 60 nm in the northeast semicircle and 90 nm in the southwest semicircle. In addition, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 109W and 112W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 84W, extending southward from the western Caribbean across Panama to 03N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolates strong convection is observed off Costa Rica from 09N to 11N between 85W and 87W. This tropical wave will be monitored over the next several days as it has the potential to act as a precursor for tropical cyclone development. There is a near zero probability of cyclogenesis in the next two days, but there is a medium probability within the next five days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 1010 mb low pressure near 08N97W to 10N100W. Another segment continues from 13N112W to 10N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 08N to 12N between 112W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on T.S. Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas, to include the entrance to the Gulf of California into Mon, before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands Mon and Tue. Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents are possible over coastal areas as well. Aside from T.S. Elida, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters north of 30N off Baja California Norte will diminish through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong gap winds, enhanced by the tropical wave in the western Caribbean now crossing Central America, will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about T.S. Elida. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Tropical Storm Elida is forecast move into the discussion waters on Tuesday as a hurricane, bringing an increase in winds and seas. Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas in the 6 to 8 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W. Looking ahead, the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be propagating across the eastern North Pacific forecast waters. This feature will produce a favorable large scale environment for active convection which will elevate the potential for tropical cyclone development in these waters over the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center will closely monitor this situation. $$ Christensen/Levine