000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092044 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1821 UTC Sun Aug 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 17.0N 106.4W at 09/2100 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Elida. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 103W and 109W. Elida is expected to continue to intensify as it moves WNW, reaching hurricane strength by Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 80W, extending southward from the western Caribbean across Panama to 03N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Active convection is noted where the tropical wave and monsoon trough are interacting. This tropical wave will be monitored over the next several days as it has the potential to act as a precursor for tropical cyclone development. There is a near zero probability of cyclogenesis in the next two days, but there is a medium probability within the next five days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 08N92W to 11N99W. It continues from 12N110W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 101W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on T.S. Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta into Mon, before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands Mon and Tue. Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents are possible over coastal areas as well. Aside from T.S. Elida, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro will diminish through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong gap winds, enhanced by the tropical wave in the western Caribbean, prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about T.S. Elida. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Tropical Storm Elida is forecast to reach hurricane intensity and move into the discussion waters on Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing an increase in winds and seas. Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas in the 6 to 8 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W. Looking ahead, the Madden Julian Oscillation will be propagating across the eastern North Pacific forecast waters. This feature will produce a favorable large scale environment for active convection which will elevate the potential for tropical cyclone development in these waters over the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center will closely monitor this situation. $$ AL