000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 922 UTC Sun Aug 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 15.8N 104.1W at 09/0900 UTC, moving WNW at 14 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm in the northeast semicircle of the storm. Elida is expected to continue to intensify as it moves WNW, reaching hurricane strength near Socorro Island by Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N93W to 11N100W. A second segment continues from 13N105W to 11N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing within 60 nm of the coast of Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 12N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 108W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on T.S. Elida. The developing system will bring increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta into Mon, before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands Mon and Tue. Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents are possible over coastal areas as well. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and elsewhere off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through today, then diminish through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will occasionally pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of the week, mainly at night. Long- period southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands will propagate northward through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about T.S. Elida. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Farther south, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell has crossed the equator, but is starting to subside. Monsoon flow has freshened between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with the southerly swell, building seas to 6 to 8 ft roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W. $$ Christensen