000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082047 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb is centered near 14N101W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 20N between 97W and 107W in association to this feature. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally west- northwestward, well offshore of southwestern Mexico. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 101W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 20N between 97W and 107W. Low pressure has developed in association to this wave, and this low has a high probability of tropical cyclone development. Please see special features section above for more information. A tropical wave axis is near 139W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1007 mb low pressure near 14N101W to 10N116W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 110W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on tropical cyclone potential over the waters off SW Mexico. Expect increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta into early next week in association with this system before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue. Winds have strengthened over the waters off southwestern Mexico in association to developing low pressure discussed in the special features section above. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and elsewhere off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun, then diminish early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will occasionally pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week, mainly at night. Long- period southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands will propagate northward through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southwestern Mexico. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Farther south, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell has crossed the equator. Monsoon flow has freshened between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with the southerly swell, building seas to 6 to 8 ft roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W. $$ AL