000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081504 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1400 UTC Sat Aug 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure, centered near 13N100W, has developed in association with a tropical wave. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 96W and 105W in association to this feature. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 100W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 96W and 105W. Low pressure has developed in association to this wave, and this low has a high probability of tropical cyclone development. Please see special features section above for more information. A tropical wave axis is near 139W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from 08N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to 1008 mb low pressure near 13N100W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 106W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on tropical cyclone potential over the waters off SW Mexico. Expect increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta into early next week in association with this system before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue. Winds have strengthened over the waters off southern Mexico in association to developing low pressure discussed in the special features section above. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and elsewhere off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun, then diminish early next week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will occasionally pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week, mainly at night. Long- period southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands will propagate northward through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southwestern Mexico. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Farther south, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell has crossed the equator. Monsoon flow has freshened between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves has combined with the southerly swell, building seas to 6 to 8 ft from 05N and 10N between 105W and 120W. $$ AL