000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 253 UTC Sat Aug 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure is expected to form tonight or Saturday south of Mexico in association with a tropical wave presently near 98W/99W south of Oaxaca, Mexico. This area looks better organized on satellite imagery currently, although it is not clear there is a coherent low pressure at the surface yet. But environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next 2-3 days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 98W/99W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 95W and 100W. This wave will be closely monitored the next several days as it is a potential precursor for tropical cyclone development. Please see special features section above for more information. A tropical wave axis is near 136W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from 08N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to 13N98W to 12N95W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec southward and westward to near 98W in association to a tropical wave and developing low pressure. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and elsewhere off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun, then diminish early next week. Fresh northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the special features section above for more on tropical cyclone potential over the waters off SW Mexico. Expect increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta tonight into early next week in association with this system before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight and Sat night, then diminish into early next week. Long-period southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands will propagate northward through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southwestern Mexico. The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Farther south, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell crossing the equator will continue to propagate northward through this weekend. An area of freshening monsoon flow is expected between 100W and 115W, which combined with southerly swell will build seas to 8 ft. $$ Christensen