000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071456 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1416 UTC Fri Aug 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 96W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 93W and 100W. This wave will be closely monitored the next several days as it is a potential precursor for tropical cyclone development. There is currently a high probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days in association to this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 134W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 130W and 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends westward from 08N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to 13N96W to 10N110W to 12N117W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N136W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 93W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 105W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh winds prevail over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue along the Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun, then diminish early next week. Fresh northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of Mexico later in the weekend in association with a tropical wave presently moving through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Expect increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta from late Sat into early Mon in association with this system before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range. The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight and Sat night, then diminish into early next week. Long-period southerly swell is building seas near the Galapagos Islands, and will propagate northward through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ, with gentle to moderate breezes farther north. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Farther south, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell crossing the equator will continue to propagate northward through this weekend. Combined seas are 6- 8 ft south of the equator. An area of freshening monsoon flow is expected between 100W and 115W, which combined with southerly swell will likely build seas to 8 ft. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information about the high potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southwestern Mexico during the next five days. $$ AL