575 AXPZ20 KNHC 070226 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 226 UTC Fri Aug 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 92W, north of 03N into Guatemala and southern Mexico, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, north of 14N between 94W and 96W, just ahead of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 131W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 140W south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 138W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 08N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to 12N100W to 11N120W. The ITCZ extends from 11N120W to 09N139W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 105W and 108W, from 08N to 10N between 114W and 117W, from 07N to 10N between 122W and 125W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 07N to 09N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Earlier ship reports indicated fresh winds off the coast of Baja California Norte this evening. This reinforces the earlier analysis of fresh winds over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. These winds are active between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue along the Gulf of California, while earlier moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region have likely diminished this afternoon. Fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun, then diminish early next week. Fresh northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of Mexico later in the weekend in association with a tropical wave presently near 91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Expect increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters early next week in association with this system. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Much of the earlier convective activity along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough has decayed this afternoon, although some showers and thunderstorms continue north of the trough over the far SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted near and ahead of the tropical wave near 91W. Available scatterometer data indicates moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with locally fresh winds near a broad low-level circulation between 93W and 97W. Regional wave heights remain 4-6 ft based on available altimeter passes. Moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region Fri night and Sat night, then diminish into early next week. Long-period southerly swell will build seas near the Galapagos Islands on Fri, then propagate northward through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Earlier scatterometer data reveals moderate to locally fresh trade winds continue over the waters north of 15N and west of 130W, south of a subtropical ridge axis that extends across the northern waters. A 1500 UTC altimeter pass indicates 5-7 ft seas persist within these trades. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Elsewhere, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell is crossing the equator tonight, and will continue to propagate northward through this weekend. Combined seas are expected to reach 8 ft south of the equator by Fri morning. An area of freshening monsoon flow is expected between 100W and 115W Fri night into Sat, which combined with southerly swell will likely build seas to 8 ft. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information about the high potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southwestern Mexico during the next five days. $$ Christensen