737 AXPZ20 KNHC 062045 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2045 UTC Thu Aug 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 91W, north of 03N into Guatemala and southern Mexico, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 08N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 129W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 126W and 130W. A tropical wave axis is along 138W south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is noted from 14N to 16N within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 08N77W across Panama and Costa Rica to 10N87W to 12N100W to 10N107W to 12N122W to 11N128W. The ITCZ extends from 10N131W to 09N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 94W and 99W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 99W and 105W, and within 240 nm of the monsoon trough W of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW to N winds occurring across the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia this afternoon. A 1830 UTC altimeter pass indicates seas are 6-8 ft in these waters. Gentle to moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja California Sur and off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue along the Gulf of California, while earlier moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region have likely diminished this afternoon. Fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun, then diminish early next week. Fresh northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of Mexico later in the weekend in association with a tropical wave presently near 91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Expect increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters early next week in association with this system. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Much of the earlier convective activity along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough has decayed this afternoon, although some showers and thunderstorms continue north of the trough over the far SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted near and ahead of the tropical wave near 91W. Available scatterometer data indicates moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with locally fresh winds near a broad low-level circulation between 93W and 97W. Regional wave heights remain 4-6 ft based on available altimeter passes. Moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region Fri night and Sat night, then diminish into early next week. Long-period southerly swell will build seas near the Galapagos Islands on Fri, then propagate northward through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent scatterometer data reveals moderate to locally fresh trade winds continue over the waters N of 15N and W of 130W, south of a subtropical ridge axis that extends across the northern waters. A 1500 UTC altimeter pass indicates 5-7 ft seas persist within these trades. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Elsewhere, generally moderate southerly flow is noted across the forecast waters south of 10N. Long-period southerly swell will cross the equator tonight, and continue propagating northward through this weekend. Combined seas are expected to reach 8 ft south of the equator by Fri morning. An area of freshening monsoon flow is expected between 100W and 115W Fri night into Sat, which combined with southerly swell will likely build seas to 8 ft. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information about the high potential for tropical cyclone formation offshore of southwestern Mexico during the next five days. $$ B Reinhart