000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Thu Aug 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 89W, north of 02N into Central America, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 128.5W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 125W and 129W. A tropical wave axis is along 137W south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from Panama near 08N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N86W to 11N106W to 12N120W to 10N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N129W to 09N136W, then resumes from 10N138W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the monsoon trough E of 80W, and from 08N to 12N between 92W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 360 nm north of the monsoon trough between 95W and 105W, and from 07N to 10N between 119W and 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds persist over the Baja California Norte waters between an offshore high pressure ridge and a low pressure trough near the Gulf of California. Based on earlier altimeter data, seas likely peak around 7-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate flow prevails off the coast of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue along the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds persist offshore of southern Mexico, except for moderate to fresh northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Sat night, then diminish Sun through early next week. Fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will strengthen this weekend following the passage of a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of Mexico later in the weekend in association with a tropical wave presently near 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Expect increasing winds and seas over portions of the offshore waters early next week in association with this system. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore convection remains active along the monsoon trough, especially in the Gulf of Panama region and near the coast of Colombia. Showers and thunderstorm activity is also enhanced along a tropical wave near 89W. Generally, moderate S to SW flow is occurring south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the trough. Wave heights remain 4-6 ft across the forecast waters. Moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight through this weekend in the wake of a passing tropical wave. Long-period southerly swell will build seas near the Galapagos Islands on Fri, then propagate northward through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are occurring over the waters N of 15N and W of 130W, south of a subtropical ridge axis that extends across the northern waters. Overnight altimeter data indicates these trades are supporting 5-7 ft seas. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this region over the next several days. Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell will cross the equator Thu night, and continue propagating northward through this weekend. Combined seas are expected to reach 8-9 ft south of the equator by Fri morning. An area of freshening monsoon flow is expected between 100W and 115W Fri night into Sat, which combined with southerly swell will likely build seas to 8-9 ft. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. $$ B Reinhart