000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 88W, north of 01N into Central America, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 86W and 91W. A tropical wave axis is along 127W south of 18N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated convection noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 135W south of 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated convection noted near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from Panama near 09N79W across Costa Rica to 11N88W to 09N100W to 11N118W to 10N126W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 13N between 109W and 123W, and from 06N to 09N west of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scatterometer data shows fresh NW winds west of northern Baja California, associated with an offshore ridge and a trough near the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail south of southern Mexico, except for moderate to fresh northerly winds in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh NW winds will prevail west of Baja California through Sun. Fresh north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will strengthen this weekend following the passage of the tropical wave along 88W. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to develop south of Mexico later in the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to develop, and a tropical depression may form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 3 to 5 days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Showers and thunderstorms are erupting along an active monsoon trough that extends across the region between 08N-10N. Moderate S to SW winds continue south of the trough, with higher gusts possible in and near the strongest convection. Wave heights are 4-6 ft across the forecast waters. Moderate southerly winds will persist south of the trough for the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend following the passage of a tropical wave. Long-period southerly swell will build seas near the Galapagos Islands on Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge is analyzed north of 18N, west of 117W. Moderate trade winds are noted across most of the area. Seas are 5 to 6 ft within this region. Little change in marine conditions is expected over the next several days. Long-period southerly swell will cross the equator early Fri, and continue this weekend. Combined seas are expected to reach 8-9 ft just south of the equator by Fri morning. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. $$ Mundell