000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052045 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2045 UTC Wed Aug 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 84W, north of 02N across Costa Rica and Nicaragua, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 124W south of 18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N within 90 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 132W south of 18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from Panama near 09N78W to 09N84W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N97W to 10N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to 09N130W, then continues from 10N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 240 nm NW quadrant of the low pressure center. Besides the convection described in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough E of 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate NW flow over the Baja California waters, between an offshore high pressure ridge and a low pressure trough along the Gulf of California. Some locally fresh winds are noted north of Punta Eugenia and south of Los Cabos. A 1530 UTC altimeter pass indicates 4-6 ft seas persist well offshore of the Baja peninsula. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate SE winds are over the Gulf of California. Wind speeds remain light to gentle offshore of southern Mexico, except for some residual moderate to fresh northerly winds south of the Tehuantepec region. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through this weekend, then diminish early next week. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next several nights, then potentially strengthen Sat night into early next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form S or SW of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is somewhat likely to form early next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Showers and thunderstorms continue along an active monsoon trough that extends across the region between 08N-10N this afternoon. Scatterometer winds reveal moderate to locally fresh S to SW flow south of the trough, with higher gusts possible in and near stronger convection. Wave heights remain in the 4-6 ft range across the forecast waters, as supported by a couple of recent altimeter passes. Moderate monsoon flow and moderate seas will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region beginning Thu night following the passage of a tropical wave. This wave may support tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Long-period southerly swell will build seas near the Galapagos Islands on Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge is analyzed across the waters N of 20N and W of 120W. Moderate to perhaps locally fresh trade winds are noted in recent scatterometer data W of 130W, between the ridge and lower pressures near the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas likely remain 5-7 ft within these trades. Little change in marine conditions is expected here over the next several days. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly flow is occurring south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ across the eastern North Pacific waters. A set of cross-equatorial, long-period southerly swell will propagate northward across the region late Thu night through this weekend. Combined seas are expected to reach 8-9 ft south of the Equator by Fri morning. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. $$ B Reinhart