000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Wed Aug 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 84W, north of 02N into Costa Rica, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 122W south of 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N within 120 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 131W south of 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from Panama near 09N78W to 08N83W to 11N88W to 11N100W to 10N119W. The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to 09N130W, then continues from 10N133W to 09N140W. Besides the convection described in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the monsoon trough E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 112W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge extends southeastward across the northern waters well offshore of Baja California. A weak low pressure trough is analyzed just east of the Baja peninsula over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds offshore of Baja California Sur, with locally fresh winds near the coast of Baja California Norte. Seas are generally running 4-7 ft in this region, highest north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, fresh to locally strong northerly gap winds are likely ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the remaining area. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through this weekend, with seas building to 6-8 ft by tonight. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will persist over the Gulf of California for the next several days. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next several nights, then potentially strengthen to near gale-force speeds Sat night and Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An active monsoon trough extends across the offshore waters between 08N-10N this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted along the trough E of 90W. A tropical wave along 84W is enhancing convective activity offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate SW monsoon flow continues south of the axis across much of the offshore waters, with light and variable winds noted north of the trough near the coast of Central America. Moderate monsoon flow and moderate seas will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo region Thu night into this weekend following the passage of a tropical wave. This wave may support tropical cyclone development off the coast of southern Mexico over the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge extends across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W this morning. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are occurring between this ridge and lower pressures near the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Associated wave heights are 5-7 ft within these trades. Little change in marine conditions is expected over the next several days. Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell is moving northward across the waters roughly S of 10N and W of 95W, although seas are presently less than 8 ft in this region. A larger set of cross- equatorial, southerly swell is expected to propagate northward across the region late Thu night through this weekend. Combined seas are expected to reach 8-9 ft south of the Equator by Fri morning. $$ B Reinhart