000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050215 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Aug 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 80W/81W, north of 06N into Panama, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 06N between 78W and 83W. A tropical wave axis is along 119W/120WW from 01N to 17N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated showers are observed from 08N to 11N between 118W and 121W. A tropical wave axis is along 128W from 01N to 17N, moving west at 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a moist unstable environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 127W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 09N78W in Panama to 11N106W to 12N124W. The ITCZ extends from 11N130W to 11N137W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 89W and 95W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 05N to 14N between 78W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends 36N151W to 34N131W to 28N119W. A trough is analyzed over the Baja California Peninsula. The gradient between these two synoptic features will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds, west of Baja California, and north of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night through Sat night, with seas building to 6-8 ft. Prevailing south to southeast winds in the Gulf of California will persist through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 3-5 ft. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse briefly to strong speeds at night through Thu, with seas to 6-7 ft. Winds are expected to increase again this weekend. Model guidance indicates stronger winds, reaching to near gale force, along with higher resultant seas, Sat night through early Mon. Developing Low pressure may track northwestward over the western part of the offshore waters between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Manzanillo this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is along 09N east of 90W. Moderate south to southwest winds continue south of the trough axis, with light and variable winds occurring north of trough. Tropical waves migrating westward from the Caribbean Sea across Central America into the eastern Pacific are helping to induce convective activity across the area. The tropical wave along 80.5W is forecast to be near 87W Wed night, and reach to near 95W on Fri. Global model guidance suggests that this wave may develop into a low pressure system across the eastern Pacific within a few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between a broad ridge across northern waters and lower pressures in the tropics near the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh trade winds from 12N to 26N, west of 125W through the remainder of the week, with seas expected to be in the 5-7 ft range. Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell producing seas of 7-8 ft is forecast to reach near 01N and the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands on Fri. $$ Mundell