000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042159 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 4 2020 Corrected Tropical Waves section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected A tropical wave has its axis along 117W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Small isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N to 15N. The wave is well depicted in the 700 GFS streamline guidance. A tropical wave has its axis along 125W/126W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave remains embedded within a very moist and unstable environment. Satellite imagery indicates that a mid-level cyclonic circulation trails this wave along the monsoon trough axis near 12N121W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm east of the wave axis from 13N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis within 60 nm of 09N125W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms related to the mid-level cyclonic circulation are noted from 09N to 13N between 118W-123W. A tropical wave has its axis along 139W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Moisture associated with this wave remains confined to along and near the monsoon trough axis within 180 nm east of the wave axis. This is also where the total precipitable water imagery animation (TPW) shows a deep pocket of moisture and where scattered moderate convection is occurring. Similar convection is east of the wave axis within 30 nm of a line from 10N133W to 11N136W. This tropical wave is pretty well noted in the GFS 700 mb streamline guidance. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1011 mb low that is along the coast of Colombia near 11N75W west-southwestward to across the Costa Rica/Panamanian border to 09N84W and northwestward to 10N96W to 12N104W to 12N117W and southwestward to 10N129W and to 10N140W. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are within 300 nm north and 120 nm south of the trough axis between 94W-98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 78W-80W, also within 120 nm south of the trough axis between 84W-87W, within 120 nm either side of the trough axis between 89W-94W and within 30 nm of the trough axis between 98W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough axis between 133W-135W and within 30 nm of the trough axis between 107W-113W and west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high pressure center is analyzed well to the northwest of the discussion area at 37N149W, with its associated ridging extending southeastward to 32N137W and to near 23N124W. The pressure gradient between this system and a meandering trough over the Baja California Peninsula will support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds to the west of Baja California, and mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night through Sat night along with seas building to 6-8 ft. During this time of the year, the prevailing winds in the Gulf of California are mainly southeast in direction. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are expected in the northern and central parts of the Gulf well into the middle part of the week, while mainly gentle southeast to south winds are forecast elsewhere, including the entrance to the Gulf. Seas will range from 3-4 ft, except up to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Overnight ASCAT data revealed northerly winds of 20-25 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds of this speed range are expected to continue to pulse across the Tehuantepec region through Thu, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas with these pulsing winds will briefly build to 8 ft. Winds are expected to increase again across this area during the upcoming weekend. Latest wind and wave height model guidance is suggesting stronger winds, possibly reaching to near gale force, along with higher resultant seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis meanders roughly from 09N to 10N east of about 100W. Overnight ASCAT data revealed mainly moderate south to southwest winds to the south of the monsoon trough, and light and variable winds to the north of the monsoon trough. As it is normal for this time of the year, tropical waves will continue to migrate westward from the Caribbean Sea to across Central America into the eastern Pacific region, helping to induce convective activity across the area. Presently, three tropical waves are moving westward to the west of 110W. Another tropical wave is forecast to move into the far eastern part of the area near 85W by Wed and reach to near 91W on Thu. Global model guidance suggests that this wave may have potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern Pacific several days from today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1029 mb high pressure center is situated well to the northwest of the area. The gradient between is associated ridging that extends southeastward across the northern waters and lower pressure in the tropics near and along the monsoon trough will allow for moderate to fresh trade winds to exist from 12N to 26N and west of 125W through the rest of the week. Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 5-7 ft range. Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell producing seas of 7-8 ft is forecast to reach near 01N and the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands during Fri. $$ Aguirre