000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 112W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 107W and 111W. Similar convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 115W and 118W. A tropical wave is along 124W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is embedded within a moist and unstable environment. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 12N between 122W and 128W. A tropical wave has its axis along 133W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 08N to 10N between 130W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis from northern Colombia near 09N74W to 09N90W to 11N112W to 10N131W. The ITCZ continues from 10N131W to beyond 08N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted within about 90 nm of the coast of western Panama and Costa Rica. Similar convection is from 07N to 09N between 88W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 94W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1029 mb centered well northwest of the discussion area near 37N154W and a meandering trough over the Baja California Peninsula will support gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California through Wed. A stronger high pressure center will begin to dominate the forecast area by mid-week, resulting in moderate to fresh northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia, with seas building to a peak of 7 or 8 ft. This weather pattern is forecast to persist through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds are also expected between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro beginning on Thu, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. During this time of the year, the prevailing winds in the Gulf of California are mainly southeast in direction. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are expected in the northern and central parts of the Gulf well into the middle part of the week, while mainly gentle southeast to south winds are forecast elsewhere, including the entrance to the Gulf. Seas will range from 3-4 ft. Northerly winds of 20-25 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec diminished to 15-20 kt early this afternoon. These winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow through Tue as high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico shifts southward. The gradient will weaken Wed allowing for these winds to diminish to 15-20 kt Wed night and becoming light to gentle north to northeast winds Thu night. Seas in the Tehuantepec are forecast to remain in the 4-7 ft range through the rest of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis stretches roughly along 09N to 10N east of about 100W. Recent scatterometer data show mainly moderate south to southwest winds to the south of the monsoon trough, and light westerly winds to the north of the monsoon trough. As it is normal for this time of the year, tropical waves will continue to migrate westward across Central America into the eastern Pacific region, helping to induce some convective activity across the area. Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward are to the west of 100W. Another tropical wave is forecast to move into the far eastern part of the area near 85W by early on Wed and reach to near 91W on Thu. Global model guidance suggest that this wave may have potential for development several days from today. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge associated with the aforementioned high pressure of 1029 mb dominates the northern forecast waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh north to northeast winds were observed by overnight scatterometer data over the northwestern waters. These winds will briefly build seas to 8 ft across part of these same waters, especially from 23N to 26N west of 137W by late tonight. These marine conditions are forecast to move west of the area by early Tue afternoon. By the middle of the week, slighter stronger high pressure northwest of the area will extend a ridge across the forecast region. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge, mainly to the west of 130W. $$ GR