000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030906 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 106W from 01N to 17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 106W and 110W. A small cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is near 08N103W. A tropical wave has its axis along 118W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is embedded within a very moist and unstable environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 116W and 120W. A tropical wave has its axis along 129W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 10N. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across southern Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N106W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 11N110.5W to 10N130W to 08N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 03N to 08N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, and from 08N to 11.5N between 110W and 115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 116W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1025 mb centered near 32N138W and a meandering trough over the Baja California Peninsula will support gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California through Wed. A stronger high pressure center will begin to dominate the forecast area by mid-week, resulting in moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Punta Eugenia, with seas building to 7 or 8 ft. This weather pattern is forecast to persist through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are also expected between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro beginning on Thu, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. During this time of the year, the prevailing winds in the Gulf of California are mainly southeast in direction. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are expected in the northern and central parts of the Gulf well into the middle part of the week, while mainly gentle southeast to south winds are forecast elsewhere, including the entrance to the Gulf. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft. A recent scatterometer pass indicates northerly winds of 15-20 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. A ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will support this weak gap wind event, forecast to persist through Wed. Seas are forecast to remain in the 4-7 ft range through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis stretches roughly along 09N to 10N east of about 100W. Recent scatterometer data show mainly moderate south to southwest winds to the south of the monsoon trough, and light westerly winds to the north of the monsoon trough. As it is normal for this time of the year, tropical waves will continue to migrate westward across Central America into the eastern Pacific region, helping to induce some convective activity across the area. Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward W of 100W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge associated with the aforementioned high pressure of 1025 mb dominates the northern forecast waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data over the NW waters. These winds will briefly build seas to 8 ft across part of the NW waters, particularly from 23N to 26N west of 137W by tonight. These marine conditions are forecast to move west of the area by early Tue. By the middle of the week, a stronger high pressure center will extend a ridge across the forecast region. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge, mainly W of 130W. $$ GR