000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030250 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 UTC Mon Aug 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105W from 01N to 17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. A small cluster of moderate convection is near 13N104W. A tropical wave has its axis along 117W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is embedded within a very moist and unstable environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 110W and 120W. A tropical wave has its axis along 128W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 12N. Isolated showers are near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends 10N85W to 11N105W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 11N110W to another low pressure of 1010 mb near 12N128W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Most of the convective activity is associated with the low pressure located near 11N110W and the tropical wave located along 117W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm SW semicircle of low center. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1025 centered near 33N135W and a meandering trough over the Baja California Peninsula will support gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California through early Wed. A stronger high pressure center will begin to dominate the forecast area by mid-week, resulting in moderate to fresh northwest to north winds N of Punta Eugenia, with seas building to 8 ft. Between June and October, the prevailing winds in the Gulf of California are mainly southeast in direction. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are expected in the northern part of the Gulf well into the middle part of the week, while mainly gentle southeast to south winds are forecast elsewhere. Fresh to strong pulsing northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed as relatively weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico builds southward with the northward advancement of Tropical Storm Isaias currently to the east of north-central Florida. Seas are forecast to remain in the 4-7 ft range through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis stretches roughly along 09N to 10N east of about 100W. Recent overnight scatterometer data showed mainly moderate south to southwest winds to the south of the monsoon trough, and light westerly winds to the north of the monsoon trough. As it is normal for this time of the year, tropical waves will continue to migrate westward across Central America into the eastern Pacific region, helping to induce some convective activity across the area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge associated to high pressure of 1025 mb centered just north of the area at 33N135W dominates the northern forecast waters north of 20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the trough axis to 18N, and west of about 120W. By the middle of the week, a stronger high pressure center will extend a ridge across the forecast waters. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds resulting from the tightening of the gradient produced by this stronger high pressure will mix with a southeast swell component briefly building seas to 8 ft across some sections of the northwest part the forecast waters, especially from 23N to 26N west of 137W by Mon night. These conditions are forecast to subside by Tue afternoon. $$ GR