000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 01N to Coalcoman, Mexico is moving westward at about 15 kt. Only isolated small showers and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm to the east of the wave axis from 10N to 14N. Isolated showers are within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 12N to 16N. A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. This wave is embedded within a very moist and unstable deep-layer atmospheric environment as observed conventional satellite imagery and in the total precipitable water (TPW) satellite imagery animation. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm to the east of the wave axis from 14N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is to the west of the wave axis to 118W from 12N to 15N. A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 02N to 17N with embedded low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N127W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are diminishing with time to the east of the wave axis from 06N to 11N. This activity is situated where broad mid-level cyclonic turning is occurring and it is possible that it may re-develop tonight. Isolated small showers and thunderstorms are to the east of wave axis to 118W from 11N to 17N, and within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 10N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis from low pressure of 1009 mb over the far southwestern Caribbean Sea near 09N77W to across northern Costa Rica to low pressure near 10N86W to 08N93W to 09N104W to low pressure near 12N110W 1010 MB and to 11N120W to low pressure near 10N127W 1010 MB to 08N132W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 78W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 NM north of the trough axis between 132W and 135W, and also within 60 nm south of the trough axis between 139W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1023 centered near 34N134W and a meandering trough over the Baja California Peninsula will support gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California through early Wed. A stronger high pressure center will begin to dominate the forecast area by mid-week, resulting in moderate to fresh northwest to north winds N of Punta Eugenia, with seas building to 8 ft. Between June and October, the prevailing winds in the Gulf of California are mainly southeast in direction. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are expected in the northern part of the Gulf well into the middle part of the week, while mainly gentle southeast to south winds are forecast elsewhere. Fresh to strong pulsing northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed as relatively weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico builds southward some with the northward advancement of Tropical Storm Isaias currently to the east of central Florida. The 1510 ASCAT pass from this morning nicely captured these fresh to strong northerly winds. Seas are forecast to remain in the 4-7 ft range through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis stretches roughly along 09N to 10N east of about 100W. Recent overnight scatterometer data showed mainly moderate south to southwest winds to the south of the monsoon trough, and light westerly winds to the north of the monsoon trough. As it is normal for this time of the year, tropical waves will continue to migrate westward across Central America into the eastern Pacific region, helping to induce some convective activity across the area. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging associated to high pressure of 1025 mb centered just north of the area at 33N135W dominates the northern forecast waters north of 20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the trough axis to 18N, and west of about 120W. By the middle of the week, a stronger high pressure center will extend a ridge across the forecast waters. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds resulting from the tightening of the gradient produced by this stronger high pressure will mix with a southeast swell component briefly building seas to 8 ft across some sections of the northwest part the forecast waters, especially from 23N to 26N west of 137W by Mon night. These conditions are forecast to subside by Tue afternoon. $$ Aguirre