000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012052 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 96W/97W, north of 02N to the western Gulf of Tehuantepec region and to the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and within 30 nm of the the wave axis from 10N to 13N. A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm east of the wave from 14N to 18N and within 180 nm west of the wave from 12N to 16N. A tropical wave has its axis along 119W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 07N to 12N and within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to 18N. A tropical wave has its axis along 138W from 01N to 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm west and 120 nm east of the wave axis from 09N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb over northwestern Colombia southwestward to 08N79W and west-northwestward to 09N90W to a 1010 mb low near 09N99W and northwestward to 10N110W to 11N117W to a 1010 mb low near 09N121W and continues southwestward to 06N129W and northwestward to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 104W-107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm in the NW and within 60 nm in the S quadrants of the low near 09N99W. Similar activity is within 60 nm north of the trough between 111W-114W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 115W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm in the S and SW quadrants of the low near 09N121W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 83W- 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 32N132W and an elongated trough that stretches from the southwestern U.S. into NW Mexico will support gentle to moderate northwest winds west of Baja California Norte, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California well into the middle part of the upcoming week. Fresh to strong northerly winds funneling in a narrow swath over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, as noted in the 1530 UTC ASCAT pass, will diminish to gentle speeds Sun afternoon and become light and variable by early Sun evening. These winds will again become fresh to strong northerly winds Sun night and diminish to fresh speeds Mon afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis stretches roughly along 09N to 10N east of 92W. Weak tropical waves will migrate westward across Central America early in the week, and could lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in a few days. Moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure ridging is over the waters north of 15N, with the parent weak high center of 1023 mb located just north of the area at 33N131W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the trough axis, west of about 120W, except for in the far northwest section of the area where gentle anticyclonic winds are present. A shrinking area of cross- equatorial southeast swell, producing seas in the range of 7-9 ft seas, is located south of 15N and west of 130W. This area of swell will gradually shift west of 140W by early Sun. $$ Aguirre