000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312054 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 90W, north of 02N to across central Guatemala and western Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Only isolated weak showers are possible near the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 09N to 11N and from 12N to 15N. A tropical wave has its axis along 111W/112W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 09N to 12N and within 60 nm of 16N114W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 16N to 19N. A tropical wave has its axis along 130W from 01N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave within 30 nm of 13N128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1008 mb over northwestern Colombia southwestward to 06N79W, then northwestward to 08N90W to 11N103W to 09N120W to 12N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 12N between 114W-117W and within 60 NM south of the trough between 100W-103W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 NM of trough between 103W-110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a weak ridge, with the parent high center of 1022 mb located near 30N131W and an elongated trough that stretches from the southwestern U.S. into NW Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Norte through tonight along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California through Tue night. Farther south, northerly winds pulsed to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this morning, but have since diminished to mainly moderate speeds. These winds are expected to pulse to fresh to strong speeds late tonight into early Sat morning and diminish to fresh speeds in the afternoon and through Sun. These winds then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late Sun into early Mon and diminish to gentle speeds Mon afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis is roughly from 08N to 11N east of 90W is expected to increase convective activity near and west of Panama and Costa Rica during the next couple of days, with the added energy from weak tropical waves migrating westward across this area. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Tue night. The earlier moderate to fresh winds that pulsed over the Gulf of Papagayo region have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds. These winds will become light and variable tonight and through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge of high pressure extends over the waters north of 15N. The gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate northeast trade winds north of the trough axis west of 115W. A shrinking area of cross-equatorial southeast swell producing seas in the range of 8-9 ft is located south of 15N and west of about 132W. This area of swell will gradually shift to west 140W by Sat evening. $$ Aguirre