000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 89W, north of 02N to across western El Salvador and eastern Guatemala. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Only isolated weak showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 13N. A tropical wave has its axis along 102W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave axis from 12N to 17N. A tropical wave has its axis along 112W from 04N to 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 12N. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the wave axis from 12N to 18N. A tropical wave has its axis along 130W from 01N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave within 30 nm of 13N128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb over northwestern Colombia southwestward to 07N79W, then northwestward to 10N90W to 11N99W to 10N107W to 16N118W and southwestward to 14N130W to low pressure of 1007 mb near 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the trough between 110W-115W and within 120 nm north of the trough between 113W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 105W-109W and within 30 nm of the trough between 102W-105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a weak ridge, with parent high center located near 30N134W and an elongated trough that stretches from the southwestern U.S. into NW Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Norte through tonight along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California through Tue night. Farther south, pulsing fresh northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region at times through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A monsoon trough axis is roughly from along 08N to 11N east of 90W is expected to increase convective activity near and west of Panama and Costa Rica during the next couple of days, with the added energy from weak tropical waves migrating westward across this area. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region this morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak ridge of high pressure extends over the waters north of 15N. The gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate northeast trade winds north of the trough axis west of 115W. A shrinking area of cross-equatorial southeast swell producing seas in the range of 8-10 ft is located south of 14N and west of about 134W. This area of swell will gradually shift to west 140W by Sat evening. $$ Aguirre