000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270805
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 UTC Mon Jul 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 89W north of 03N into El Salvador,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted near the coast from 09N to 13N.

A tropical wave axis is along 108W, from 04N to 17N. It is 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate is noted from 08N
to 10N between 106W and 108W.

A tropical wave extends along 137W from 02N to 17N, moving west 
at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical 
wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 1009 mb low
pressure near 13N98W to 13N120W to 10N130W. The intertropical 
convergence zone axis extends from 13N130W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
11N to 15N between 97W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection 
is observed from 07N to 10N between 105W and 113W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 130W and
132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure west of Baja California will support moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro into late week.
A deep layer trough moving into the southwest US will allow 
pressure to lower north of the region Tue. This pattern will 
support moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf of 
California Tue and Wed.

Farther south, light breezes and southerly swell will persist 
through the period. Weak low pressure of 1009 mb has persist
along the monsoon trough around 12N98W. This low is expected to 
remain weak and drift northwest well south and west of the 
southern Mexican coast over the next several days. As it does, 
the monsoon trough will lift northward to off the coast of 
southern Mexico by Tue. This will support increased showers and 
thunderstorms, mainly at night. Looking ahead, pulses of fresh to
locally strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region Thu night through Sat night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR..

The monsoon trough is lifting northward to a position parallel 
to the coast of Central America by Tue. This pattern will 
maintain scattered thunderstorms and gentle to moderate southerly
winds. Looking ahead, pulses of fresh offshore winds are likely 
in the Papagayo region Wed through Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure extends over the waters north of 20N. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon
trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate NE trade winds north of the 
monsoon trough west of 120W with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.
Meanwhile, cross-equatorial southerly swell E of 115W is
subsiding with seas expected to be 7 ft by late today.

$$
Christensen