992 AXPZ20 KNHC 270222 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 222 UTC Mon Jul 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 88W from 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 86W and 88W. A tropical wave axis now is along 107W, from 08N to 17N. It is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 104W and 107W. A tropical wave extends along 136W from 02N to 17N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N97W to 11N110W to 13N120W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 13N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 86W and 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 11N between 95W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure west of Baja California will support moderate to locally fresh NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro into late week. A deep layer trough moving into the southwest US will allow pressure to lower north of the region Tue. This pattern will support moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed. Farther south, light breezes and southerly swell will persist through the period. Weak low pressure of 1011 mb has formed around 12N97W. This low is expected to remain weak and drift NW well south and west of the southern Mexican coast over the next several days. As it does, the monsoon trough will lift northward to off the coast of southern Mexico by Tue. This will support increased showers and thunderstorms, mainly at night. Looking ahead, pulses of fresh to locally strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Thu night through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR.. The monsoon trough is lifting northward to a position parallel to the coast of Central America by Tue. This pattern will maintain scattered thunderstorms and gentle to moderate southerly winds. Looking ahead, pulses of fresh offshore winds are likely in the Papagayo region Wed through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extends over the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate NE trade winds north of the monsoon trough west of 120W with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Meanwhile, cross-equatorial southerly swell E of 115W will gradually decay into tonight, allowing seas to fall below 8 ft. $$ Christensen