000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2132 UTC Tue Jul 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 12.1N 125.4W at 21/2100 UTC, moving west-southwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N-14N between 123W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N-14N between 122W and 132W. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Douglas could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N-15N with axis near 95W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-15N between 90W and 105W. A tropical wave extends from 04N-17N with axis near 108W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 106W and 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N84W to 09N100W to 12N117W. It resumes as 11N131W and continues to 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Douglas, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N east of 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure that ridges southeastward from the northeast Pacific and a low pressure trough along Baja California will continue to induce fresh to strong northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California del Norte through late today. To the east of the trough, fresh to strong southeast winds can be expected in the northern Gulf of California, briefly diminishing tonight, then increase again Wed afternoon and diminish to mainly fresh speeds late Wed night into Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate winds will continue through the rest of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Southwest winds flowing into lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough will increase to fresh to locally strong speeds through late in the week as a strong tropical wave crosses from Central America to the offshore waters. Seas of 5-7 ft can be expected with these winds through Thu, then build to 6-8 ft on Fri. Low pressure may forming on the tropical wave at that time, with a good possibility of numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting most of the Central American offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for on Tropical Storm Douglas. Post-Tropical Cyclobe Seven-E is centered near 19.1N 134.8W at 21/1800 UTC. There is no deep convection associated with this cyclone. Further weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate Wednesday or Wednesday night. High pressure located well north of the area extends a ridge across the northern waters. Outside conditions associated with Tropical Storm Douglas, the pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate northeast to east winds north of the monsoon trough and west of about 118W, along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. $$ Ramos