000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 13.0N 122.8W or about 940 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 21/0900 UTC, moving west-southwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the cyclone is strengthening as observed by its overall pattern consisting of curved bands wrapping into the center from the west. A central dense overcast (CDO) feature is noted as well on satellite imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Similar convection is noted from 10N to 11N between 123W-126W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 13N129W, and within 30 nm of a line from 08N122W to 09N121W to 10N122W. Douglas is forecast to keep moving west-southwestward this morning. A westward motion is forecast this afternoon and continue through Thu. Douglas is forecast to become a hurricane late tonight near 12.2N 127.0W, with maximum sustained winds of 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt and strengthen into Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Seven-E is centered near 19.3N 133.0W at 21/0900 UTC moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The depression is devoid of all deep convection. It expected to become a remnant low early today as it moves over cooler waters. The cyclone is forecast to continue on a general westward motion through the next day or as it will be steered mainly by the low-level easterly flow. Present strong winds associated with the low will gradually diminish during the next day or or two until it dissipates. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its along 94W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate strong convection is within 60 nm of 15N95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 09N to 12N and from 06N to 08N. Similar activity is within 30 nm of 06N93W. A tropical wave has its axis along 107W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 10N to 12N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere within 180 nm either side of the wave from 09N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low over northwestern Colombia west-southwestward to 10N84W to 090N90W to 10N100W to 10N109W and pauses at 12N117W. It resumes as 14N128W TO 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 NM south of the trough between 85W and 88W, and also within 60 NM north of the trough between 86W AND 87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 94W and 98W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 98W and 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure that ridges southeastward from the northeast Pacific and a low pressure trough along Baja California will continue to induce fresh to strong northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California del Norte through late Tue. To the east of the trough, fresh to strong southeast winds can be expected in the northern Gulf of California beginning in a few hours, briefly diminish tonight, then increase again Wed afternoon and diminish to mainly fresh speeds late Wed night into Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate winds will continue through the rest of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Southwest winds flowing into lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough will increase to fresh to locally strong speeds through late in the week as a strong tropical wave crosses from Central America to the offshore waters. Seas of 5-7 ft can be expected with these winds through Thu, then build to 6-8 ft on Fri. Low pressure may forming on the tropical wave at that time, with a good possibility of numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting most of the Central American offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for on Tropical Storm Douglas and on Tropical Depression Seven-E, both in the western part of the area. A 1031 mb high pressure center is located well north of the area 40N153W, with a ridge extending from it to across the northern waters. Outside conditions associated with Tropical Storm Douglas, the pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate northeast to east winds north of the monsoon trough and west of about 118W, along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. $$ Aguirre