000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 13.1N 121.0W or about 900 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 21/0000 UTC, moving west-southwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the cyclone is strengthening as observed by its overall pattern that consist of curved bands wrapping into the center from the west. A central dense overcast (CDO) feature is noted as well on satellite imagery. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 14N between 122W and 123W, also within 60 nm of 11N123W, within 30 nm of a line from 15N119W to 15N121W to 15N122W and within 30 nm of 12N124W. Douglas is forecast to turn toward the west during the next couple of days and become a hurricane, then track west-northwestward beyond that time. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Seven-E is centered near 19.2N 131.8W at 21/0300 UTC moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The depression center is clearly exposed under east to southeast upper shear. The remaining conevection is removed well to the west of the center and consists of quickly decreasing scattered showers thunderstorms from 18N to 20N between 132W-134W. The depression is forecast to turn toward the west Tue morning, then turn west-southwestward late Tue. Weakening will continue and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low early on Tue and dissipate by late Wed west of the area. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its along 92W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 09N to 12N. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave within 30 nm of 14N91W. A tropical wave has its axis along 106W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 12N107W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere within 180 nm either side of the wave from 09N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1007 mb low over northwestern Colombia west-southwestward to 10N84W to 08N92W to 10N100W to 10N110W and to 12N116W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 80W and 85W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 84W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 86W and 90W and within 60 nm either side of the trough between 91W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 95W and 99W and within 120 nm north of the trough between 105W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure that ridges southeastward from the northeast Pacific and a low pressure trough along Baja California will continue to induce fresh to strong northwest winds across the waters west of Baja California del Norte through late Tue. To the east of the trough, fresh to strong southeast winds can be expected in the northern Gulf of California beginning early on Tue and last through early Thu. Elsewhere, generally gentle to moderate winds will continue through the rest of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Southwest winds flowing into lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough will increase to fresh to locally strong speeds through late in the week as a strong tropical wave crosses from Central America to the offshore waters. Seas of 5-7 ft can be expected with these winds through Thu, then build to 6-8 ft on Fri. Low pressure may forming on the tropical wave at that time, with a good possibility of numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting most of the Central American offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on newly upgraded Tropical Storm Douglas and on Tropical Depression Seven-E, both in the western part of the area. A 1031 mb high pressure center is located well north of the area 42N142W, with a ridge extending from it to across the northern waters. Outside conditions associated with Tropical Storm Douglas, the pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate northeast to east winds north of the monsoon trough and west of about 118W, along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. $$ Aguirre