000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192124 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2007 UTC Sun Jul 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 03N to low pressure near 15N127W 1008 mb to 18N. These features are moving west at 10-15 kt. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds within these features. These winds are expected to increase to fresh by this evening. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection to the west of the low/wave from 14N-18N between 127W-129W. The convection has become less organized as the system continues its movement over cooler waters. There will be a very small window when the system could become a depression over the next day or so. The system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 94W and south of 21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis along 118W from 03N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 10N-17N between 115W-121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low over the southwest Caribbean to 10N86W to a 1010 mb low near 09N103W to another 1010 mb low near 09N112W to special freature low near 16N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-10N and E of 89W, 06N-13N between 100W-115W, and from 07N-16N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep-layer trough north of 28N and west of 120W supports a weak surface trough that extends from near 26N134W to 21N135W. A weak pressure gradient across the area is producing fresh northwest winds west of Baja California, to the north of Punta Eugenia, and mainly gentle northwest winds to the south of it. The trough is forecast to weaken this evening, allowing high pressure to build into the area through early next week. Freshening winds and an increase in seas are expected through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue in the Gulf of California today, with seas in the range of 3-4 ft. The exception is that the southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong speeds on Tue and continue through Wed, with seas to around 6 ft. High pressure ridging over the Gulf of Mexico is promoting fresh north winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon and pulse to fresh speeds tonight. Gentle winds will prevail from Mon through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, becoming fresh at night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will remain over the waters south of 08N through the next few days. No significant long- period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1035 mb high pressure center is located well north of the area 44N140W, with a ridge extending from it to the northern waters west of the above described trough. The pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds north of the convergence zone to 22N and west of 118W, where seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Fresh northeast to east-northeast winds prevail across the northwest waters to the west of the frontal trough, and area producing seas of 6-7 ft. This area of winds will shift westward through late today and weaken across the local waters, with resultant seas diminishing to the range of 5-7 ft. The Special Features tropical wave/low along 127W will move west-northwest through the next couple of days with some gradual development possible. Fresh winds are presently within 180 nm NW of the low along with seas to 9 ft. These winds are expected to reach up 30 kt within the next 12 hours over the E and SE quadrants of the low. The large area of convection that accompanies the tropical wave currently along 118W is expected to become better organized as it moves west. With this, a tropical depression could develop by the middle of the week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. $$ ERA