824 AXPZ20 KNHC 191610 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1600 UTC Sun Jul 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis along 126W from 04N to low pressure near 15N126W 1007 mb and northward to 19N126W. These features are moving west at 10-15 kt. ASCAT data indicated N-NE winds of 20-25 kt within 180 nm NW of the low. These winds are expected to increase to 20-30 kt by this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection moving westward from 14N to 17N between 124W and 127W and also within 60 nm of 14N125W. The convection has become better organized during the past several hours and cyclonic turning of the overall cloud pattern of the system is becoming more evident with time. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it continues moving west- northwestward. The system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 92W and south of 21N. This wave has been repositioned after analyzing upper air sounding data and latest surface observations, as well as satellite signatures. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave has its is axis along 116W from 03N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis to 120W from 10N-17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1007 mb low over northwestern Colombia westward to 10N86W to 08N108W to 1007 mb surface low near 15N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N-15N between 96W-114W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-18N between 112W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep-layer trough north of 28N and west of 120W supports a weak surface trough that extends from near 27N130W to near 22N133W. This feature is blocking high pressure across the NE Pacific from building into offshore waters. The resultant weak pressure gradient across the area is producing fresh northwest winds west of Baja California, to the north of Punta Eugenia, and mainly gentle northwest winds south of Punta Eugenia. The trough is forecast to weaken today, allowing high pressure to build modestly into the area through early next week. Freshening winds and a modest increase in seas are expected through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue in the Gulf of California today, with seas in the range of 3-4 ft. The exception is that the southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong speeds on Tue and continue through Wed, with seas to around 6 ft. High pressure ridging over the Gulf of Mexico is promoting fresh to strong north winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon and pulse to fresh speeds tonight. Gentle winds will prevail from Mon through the week. No significant long- period swell is expected across the Mexican offshore zones the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, becoming fresh at night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will remain over the waters south of 08N through the next few days. No significant long- period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong 1037 mb high pressure center is located well north of the area 45N140W, with a ridge extending from it to across the northern waters west of the above described trough. The pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the convergence zone to 22N and west of 118W, where seas are in the 5-8 ft range. Fresh northeast to east-northeast winds prevail across the northwest waters to the west of the frontal trough, and area producing seas of 6-7 ft. This area of winds will shift westward through late today and weaken across the local waters, with resultant seas diminishing to the range of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Cross-equatorial SE swell mixing with a northeast swell is maintaining seas in the 7-9 ft range south of 16N and west of 138W. This swell will decay through early on Sun allowing for these seas to subside to 5-6 ft. The Special Features tropical wave/low along 127W will move west-northwest through the next couple of days with some gradual development possible. Strong winds are presently within 180 nm NW of the low along with seas of 8-9 ft. These winds are expected to reach up 30 kt by early this afternoon as they also begin to develop over the E and SE quadrants of the low. Seas are expected to reach up 10 ft late today and possibly 11 ft or a little higher tonight. This system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. $$ ERA