000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis along 125W from 03N to low pressure near 14N125W 1007 mb and northward to 18N125W. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. ASCAT data from Sat indicated N-NE winds of 20-25 kt within 180 nm NW of the low. These winds are expected to increase to 20-30 kt by early this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection moving westward from 14N to 17N between 124W and 127W and also within 60 nm of 14N125W. The convection has become better organized during the past several hours and cyclonic turning of the overall cloud pattern of the system is becoming more evident with time. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward. It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis tilted in a northeast to southwest fashion from the eastern Bay of Campeche south-southwestward from there to across to across the eastern part of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and continues to 13N94W and to near 05N95W. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of 15N94W and west of the wave axis from 11N to 13N between 97W-101W. A tropical wave has its is axis along 114W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of this wave from 13N to 16N between 115W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is also ahead the wave from 10N to 13N between 117W-118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low over northwestern Colombia westward to over northern Costa Rica, and continues to 09N95W and northwestward to 10N107W to 13N116W to low pres near 14N125W, then southwestward to 11N132W to low pres near 10N139W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm south of trough between 78W-80W, from 03N to 05N east of 78W, within 120 nm south of trough between 133W-135W and within 60 mm north of trough between 133W-135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of trough between 100W- 102W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of trough between 108W-110W, also between 116W-118W, within 120 nm south of trough between 128W-130W and within 60 nm south of trough between 136W-138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep-layer trough north of 28N and west of 120W supports a weak surface trough that extends from near 32N124W to near 30N126W. This feature, for the time being, is blocking high pressure across the NE Pacific from building into offshore waters. The resultant weak pressure gradient across the area is producing fresh northwest winds west of Baja California, to the north of Punta Eugenia, and mainly gentle northwest winds south of Punta Eugenia. The trough is forecast to weaken today, allowing high pressure to build modestly into the area through early next week. Freshening winds and a modest increase in seas are expected Sun through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue in the Gulf of California today, with seas in the range of 3-4 ft. The exception is that the southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California will increase to fresh to strong speeds on Tue and continue through Wed, with seas to around 6 ft. High pressure ridging over the Gulf of Mexico is promoting fresh to strong north winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon and increase to fresh speeds tonight before diminishing to gentle speeds on Mon and changing little thereafter. No significant long- period swell is expected across the Mexican offshore zones the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, becoming fresh during during the night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will remain over the waters south of 08N through the next few days. No significant long- period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong 1038 mb high pressure center is located well north of the area 43N140W, with a ridge extending from it to across the northern waters west of the above described trough. The pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the convergence zone to 22N and west of 118W, where seas are in the 5-8 ft range. Fresh northeast to east-northeast winds prevail across the northwest waters to the west of the frontal trough, and area producing seas of 6-7 ft. This area of winds will shift westward through late Sun and weaken across the local waters, with resultant seas diminishing to the range of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Cross-equatorial SE swell mixing with a northeast swell is maintaining seas in the 7-9 ft range south of 16N and west of 138W. This swell will decay through early on Sun allowing for these seas to subside to 5-6 ft. The Special Features tropical wave along 125W with an embedded 1007 mb low pressure near 14N125W will move west-northwest through the next couple of days. with some gradual development possible. Strong winds are presently within 180 nm NW of the low along with seas of 8-9 ft. These winds are expected to reach up 30 kt by early this afternoon as they also begin to develop over the E and SE quadrants of the low. Seas are expected to reach up 10 ft late today and possibly 11 ft or a little higher tonight. This system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. $$ Aguirre