000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190351 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical has its axis along 124W from 03N to low pressure near 14N124W 1008 mb and to 18N124W. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. An afternoon ASCAT pass indicated N-NE winds of 20-25 kt within 180 nm NW of the low. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection moving westward from 14N to 16N between 124W and 126W and also within 60 nm either side of the wave from 11N to 14N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 10.5N126W. This system is has the potential for some development late this weekend and early next week before it moves into less favorable atmospheric conditions. It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis tilted in a northeast to southwest fashion from just inland the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula southward from there to across far southeastern Mexico near the Guatemala border and continues to 13N93W and to near 06N93W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 10N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 13N95. A tropical wave has its is axis along 112W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of this wave from 12N to 17N between the wave and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is also ahead the wave from 11N to 12N between 113W-117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1007 mb over northwestern Colombia west-northward to over northern Costa Rica, and continues southwestward to 07N94W and northwestward to 09N108W to 12N117W to low pres near 14N124W, then southwestward to 11N132W to low pres near 10N138W and to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm south of trough between 131W- 134W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm either side of trough west of 138W, and within 60 nm north of trough between 135W-138W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 78W-79W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep-layer trough north of 28N and west of 120W supports a weak surface trough that extends from near 32N122W to near 30N125W. This feature, for the time being, is blocking high pressure across the NE Pacific from building into offshore waters. The resultant weak pressure gradient across the area is producing fresh northwest winds west of Baja California, to the north of Punta Eugenia, and mainly gentle northwest winds south of Punta Eugenia. The trough is forecast to weaken and through Sun, allowing high pressure to build modestly into the area through early next week. Freshening winds and a modest increase in seas are expected Sun through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist in the Gulf of California this weekend, increasing modestly during the afternoon and evening, with seas of 2-4 ft. High pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico continues to induce moderate gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which will become fresh each night. This will continue through Sun afternoon. No significant long-period swell is expected across the Mexican offshore zones the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, becoming fresh during during the night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will remain over the waters south of 08N through the next few days. No significant long- period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong 1035 mb high pressure center is located well north of the area 44N141W, with a ridge extending from it to across the northern waters west of the above described trough. The pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the convergence zone to 22N and west of 118W, where seas are in the 5-8 ft range. Fresh northeast to east-northeast winds prevail across the northwest waters to the west of the frontal trough, and area producing seas of 6-7 ft. This area of winds will shift westward through late Sun and weaken across the local waters, with resultant seas diminishing to the range of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Cross-equatorial SE swell mixing with a northeast swell is maintaining seas in the 7-9 ft range south of 16N and west of 138W. This swell will decay through early on Sun allowing for these seas to subside to 5-6 ft. The Special Features tropical wave along 124W with embedded 1008 mb low pressure near 14N124W 1008 mb tonight will move west- northwest through the next couple of days, with some gradual development possible. Strong winds are presently within 180 nm NW of the low along with seas of 8-9 ft. Similar winds are likely to develop over the E and SE quadrants of the low early on Sun. These winds could increase further Sun night through Mon night along with seas possibly building some. $$ Aguirre