000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181620 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1514 UTC Sat Jul 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W, north of 02N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5 TO 09.5N east of 81W to the coast of Colombia, and extending into the immediate Caribbean coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave is analyzed along 108W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 105W and 116W. A tropical wave is along 121W-122W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 120W and 126W then continues along the monsoon trough as described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W TO 09N110W TO 14N118W TO low pres 1007 MB NEAR 09N133.5W TO 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 03.5 TO 09.5N E OF 81W and from 07N TO 16N between 91W and 116W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection from 05.5N TO 15.5N W OF 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layered upper trough west of 120W supports an old frontal trough from 31N125W to 24N130W, which is blocking high pressure across the NE Pacific from building into offshore waters. The resultant weak pressure gradient across the area is producing gentle to moderate NW winds west of Baja California, which will persist today, and remain strongest north of Punta Eugenia. The trough will weaken and drift west tonight through Sunday, allowing high pressure to build modestly into the area through early next week. Freshening winds and a modest increase in seas are expected Sun through Mon night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist in the Gulf of California this weekend, with 2-4 ft seas. High pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico has induced fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which will continue through Sun afternoon. No significant long-period swell is expected across the Mexican offshore zones the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east gap winds will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Mon, peaking during during the night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail over the waters south of 08N through Tue, with fresh winds expected this weekend. No significant long-period swell is expected in Central American and equatorial offshore zones the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1034 mb high pressure center is located near 42N142W extends a ridge across the northern waters west of the frontal trough from 125W-130W. The pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the convergence zone to 20N and west of 120W, where seas are in the 5-8 ft. Fresh NE to ENE winds prevail across the NW waters to the west of the frontal trough, and area producing seas of 6-8 ft, highest north of 29N. This area of winds will weaken, with resultant seas diminishing to 6-7 ft by late this afternoon. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Cross-equatorial SE swell maintains seas in the 6-7 ft range south of 08N and west of 115W. GFS global model continues to show development of a low pressure area in association with the tropical wave, presently along 121W-122W, in 2 to 3 days as it moves westward over open waters. Winds to 25 kt and seas to 8 ft are likely to develop across north and east portions of this low by tonight or Sun and could increase further Sun night through Mon. $$ Stripling